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10/27/2004: "Bush's Other Election Day Worry"

There is a large reason to worry about Bush's reelection chances. Traditionally, there have always been more leaning Democrats than leaning Republicans; but, there are more firmly Republicans than firmly Democrats. When turnout is high, that means leaning voters are voting, Democrats win. When turnout is low, only firmly preferenced voters are voting; Republicans win.

This time, with all the early voting, I expect turnout to be high. Then again, early voting is new; new trends may emerge.

Interesting times, these are.