People died so I'd be free to blather here. And it's not just that they died, many knew that by performing a certain action, they would likely die. I'm talking about people storming the beaches at Iwo Jima and Normandy. I'm talking about people crossing the Delaware and camping at Valley Forge.
Because of these sacrifices, we are much more able to concentrate on improving trhe world around us, rather than avoiding some dreading knock on the door at night. The selfless sacrifices of these men improved my life not just by keeping threats from my environment; they improved my life indirectly by keeping threats from my neighbors environments, enabling my neighbors to enrich my life.
And for that, I thank them.
Alan on 05.28.04 @ 04:10 PM CT [link]
From Australian Broadcasting Corporation, as quoted on Command Post:
Radical cleric Moqtada Sadr and a council of Iraqi clerics have agreed on a truce to end fighting in three contested cities between his militia and the US-led coalition, US officials say.
Earlier on Thursday, Rubaie, quoting a statement signed by Sadr, said the cleric was willing to pull members of his Mehdi Army who are not from Najaf out of the city and had demanded in return that a murder case for which he is wanted be suspended.
The U.S.-led coalition has previously said it will not negotiate with Sadr and that to end the confrontation he must disband his militia and agree to face justice.
Having been out of work since January, I've been wondering how to earn enough money to not just eat, but also to keep my blathering alive. I talked to someone who peddled water around Wrigley Field last year, and an idea was born.
He lived there, which made his life easy. He could sell some water and restock at need. He'd go out for 45 minutes before the game started and earn about $150. Hearing this, of course, my ears perked up. He would sell water for $2 per bottle (he said 16 ounce, I assume he meant the more standard half liter) or two bottles for $3; most people got 2 bottles. I went KMart and bought two coolers; I can squeeze 60 bottles in each cooler; 48 bottles plus ice per cooler ought to be a comfortable fit, or 96 bottles per trip. At $1.50 per bottle, I would be able to gross $144 per trip. Water costs from $5 to $8 for 30 bottles at Walgreens; that's $16 to $25.60 for 96 bottles.
Physics
Of course, I have to get the water cold. Unable to rely on my undersized refigerator, I must use ice. To determine the relative cooling power of ice, I had to know how much energy it would take to cool a kilogram of water. The heat capacity of water is 4.184 kJ/kg K. I also had to know how much energy it takes to melt a kilogram of ice. The heat of fusion of water is 334 kJ/kg . Comparing these two numbers, I see that if I combine one kilogram of ice at zero degrees Celcius with one kilogram of ice at just under 80 degrees Celcius, I will end up with 2 kilograms of water at zero degrees Celcius. Or, I can start with one unit of ice at freezing and two units of water at forty degrees Kelvin above freezing and end up with three units of water at freezing.
This is akin to saying I can start with equal amounts of 32 degree Farenheit ice and 176 degree Farenheit water and end up with 32 degree Farenheit water. Or, I can start with one unit of ice at freezing and three units of water at eighty degrees Farenheit and end up with four units of water at freezing. One liter of water weighs 2.2 pounds. 48 half liter bottles contain 24 liters of water, which weighs 52.8 pounds. If I assume that water to be at 80 degrees farenheit to start, I will need 17.6 pounds of ice to get that water down to freezing. That is about two $1.50 8 pound bags of ice per cooler, with a third bag of ice to keep the water cold during the sales.
The total weight of each cooler would be 52.8 pounds of product and 24 pounds of ice. Adding 30 pounds for the coolers and cart, I have about 180 pounds to push around, which I can handle. If I gross $144 per trip with costs of $9 for ice and $25 for water, I net $110 for a two to four hour shift. Not what I dreamed of doing when I was growing up, but I can live off that. Besides, there are other items to peddle out there.
Regulators
I have two sites in mind for selling water; outside Wrigley Field and outside Navy Pier. I used to work on Navy Pier, so I know I can find good spots to sell there. I stopped by Wrigley Field last week to scope out good selling spots. (They exist.) I also talked to a cop (three stripes, no less) about his impressions of where I could sell; he refered me to Alderman Tunney. Somehow, this seems like the face of Chicago Politics; if I want permission to do something, I need to talk to the local political Don. The good news is, he didn't have any specific knowledge that I could not sell around Wrigley Field.
I did get some misinformation from a couple of other people. One said it was easy to get a peddler's license, that taxes were not a problem. Another said that it was hard as heck to get a peddler's license, that I'd have to get proof of insurance first.
So I went to City Hall to get information on a peddler's license. Yes, I do need to worry about taxes, but it's easy to register a business in Illinois, and thus charge state tax. And Chicago law states that the Director of Revenue "shall issue" a peddler's license unless I'm a bad boy.
The one stickler is whether I need to get a food peddling license or a non-food peddling license. To sell food, I need to go through the health department and pay $330. To get a non food license, I need to pay $70 (or $80) and go through the city clerk. The clerk I spoke to said that, in this context, drinking water is treated like food, and that the Health department only issues licenses for food to be sold from real estate or from motor vehicles.
That was deflating. All my dreams took a tumble. Still, I got the forms, just in case.
The Workaround
So now, I'm thinking, why can't I sell water for external use only? If people choose to drink it anyway, what can little-old-I do about it? I could have a sign such as:
Aqua-Cool
You don't need to drink water to get cool!
You can pour it on your clothes and let feel relief as the water evaporates!
And don't worry, for all but the most delicate of fabrics, this is safe for your clothes. I only sell high quality drinking water. I buy it from reputable merchants do not let it become tainted. I drink the water that I sell. I say this because I want you to feel safe pouring this drinking water on your clothes.
I can not, however, sell you water to drink. The City of Chicago, in all their wisdom, will not let me. To them, selling water to drink is like selling raw pork to eat; if mishandled, it can make you sick. Understandably, the City of Chicago will not let anyone sell food from a pushcart. Unfortunately, neither will they let me sell water to drink.
I cannot sell you water to drink. I will sell you drinking water for other purposes. What you do with it is your business.
In the board game Risk, there are 42 countries on six continents; up to six players may play at the same time. Players get extra armies at the beginning of each turn based on countries owned, continents owned, and, indirectly, based on the number of turns in which at least one country was taken. During their turn, players may attack any opponent's country from an adjacent country of their own. Whether they win or not depends on luck and the number armies in the two countries. As games progress, players tend to have blocks of countries with armies massed on the countries around the perimeter.
Iraq has the feel of a perimeter country to me now. Iran is sending lots of support there. Terrorists view Iraq as a chance to fight infidels. In a sense, our enemies are massing their armies against us in Iraq.
In Risk, once you get through an opponents perimeter country, amassing further victories is easy; countries inside the preimeter are lightly garrisoned. I suspect the same concept applies in Iraq. My weakest thought is that if we lose in Iraq, the terrorists will have an easier time attacking the Sears Tower or the White House. If we lose Iraq, I feel strongly we will have a hard time taking down the next international suopporter of terrorists, be it North Korea or Saudi Arabia. But if we win Iraq, I suspect we'll have an easier time; perhaps presaging a student uprising in Iran.
Alan on 05.25.04 @ 05:47 PM CT [link]
It seems that we are winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the Iraqi Arab street. Via Zeyad, excerpts of a joint statement of senior Shia clerics:
1. It is the movement of Sayyid Muqtada Al-Sadr that is losing legitimacy in the strictest sense
[....]
2. It is the movement of Sayyid Muqtada that has encouraged the occupiers to cross the red lines. And as aside from that, the American occupiers while storming into Iraq and marching towards Baghdad through Najaf and Karbala did not commit the stupidities and insolence with regard to the sanctities in the two holy cities they have committed now.
3. And it is clear that the organization of Sayyid Muqtada - and whoever follows the Sadrist movement - were the first to violate the sanctity of the yard of Haydari Shareef (Imam Ali's shrine in Najaf)
[....]
4. The organization of Sayyid Muqtada is now carrying out intimidation of the general public and arrests of citizens, not only those whom they call collaborators with the occupation, the police, owners of stores selling foodstuffs to occupiers and others, but also students of religious sciences opposed to them
[....]
5. The firing of shots at the great dome of the shrine of Imam Ali (peace be upon him) [in Najaf], according to some specialists was most likely from the weapons of Sayyid Muqtada's followers and not from the weapons of others
[....]
6. The strike on the home and office of his Excellence Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani happened within the security perimeter whose every span was controlled by the organization of Sayyid Muqtada
[....]
Just cames across a couple of quotes in Command Post comments.
From Jeff B 5/22 8:12 PM (more complete quote also on Command Post), a Margaret Thatcher Quote from May, 2003, apparently in the wake of initial victory in Iraq.
There are too many people who imagine that there is something sophisticated about always believing the best of those who hate your country, and the worst of those who defend it.
“War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things:
The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feelings which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.
A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight; nothing he cares about more than his own personal safety; is a miserable creature who has not chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions and blood of better men than himself.”
When a people are used as mere human instruments for firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a people. A war to protect other human beings against tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own ideas of right and good, and which is their own war, carried on for an honest purpose by their free choice—is often the means of their regeneration.
Geez. You try to keep up on the latest celebrity returns from the dead story, only to find out that Martians will not be staying here. "Ambassador From Mars Receives 181,634 Spam Emails; Says 'Earthlings Are Not Ready' and Takes First Available Saucer Back Home"
Stupid spam.
Alan on 05.22.04 @ 12:36 AM CT [link]
Although this discusses yesterday's attack, it is about our reaction to it. From Wretchard:
It's an imaginary scene from World War 2, though it could have happened. Battalion headquarters gets a report over the phone from a front line sector. 'Armor moving to our front, 300 yards out bearing 75 degrees.' The information is plotted in grease pencil on a 1:10,000 map with an an acetate overlay. The position of the platoon reporting is known on the map. A protractor marks out the bearing and ruler paces of the distance. A symbol for enemy armor is drawn on the acetate. Ten minutes later, more details come in. 'Armor is three tanks'. A number is written in beside the enemy armor symbol. Battalion asks the platoon commander if someone can get a better look at the armor. Twenty minutes later, another update is phoned in. 'Sir, I don't know what they are doing there, but the armor is ours.' The map plot is amended, and the symbol for enemy armor is changed to reflect friendly armor.
Although the news media functions as the civilian intelligence system, collecting raw data, processing it and distributing it to the public, for historical reasons it lacks many of the features which professional intelligence systems have evolved over the years: namely a system of grading information by reliability and existence of analytic cell whose function is to follow the developments and update the results. In the example above, AP writer Scheherezade Faramarzi performed many of the tasks which our fictional battalion intelligence officer undertook. Her stories evolved from a categorical description of an American attack on a wedding party, to a middle stage in which the wedding party attack remained the primary hypothesis disputed by American military officers; and finally to one in which the roles were reversed -- a story of an attack on a militant safe house described by some Iraqis to have been an attack on a wedding party.
But for other media outlets, there was no tracking on a mental acetate overlay, no update.
On May 20, 2004 at 09:30 Zulu, after the last entry in the table above, the International Committee of the Red Cross "condemned Thursday an 'excessive' use of force by the US military." The story went on to say that "US troops faced further embarrassment amid claims they killed dozens of people at a wedding celebration in a remote western Iraqi town, at a time when the occupation forces are already reeling from a prison abuse scandal." A reaction based on old news had taken twelve hours to work its way through the Red Cross and emerged to spawn further accusations on its own power.
(Incidentally, I wrote software a few months ago which allows the user to do something very similar to what is described above. It allows the user to define relationships between any arbitrary event, object, person, geographical location or event. The idea was to allow the user to build an unlimited network of connections between any entities so that indirect relationships could be "discovered". The user could then follow the connections or have the whole network displayed from the viewpoint of any chosen node. It took about four days to write and requires Microsoft Access 2000 or better to run. It was the quickest way to prototype the concept. I've sent free evaluation copies to a few bloggers over the last few months. One day I'll do it properly.)
Via Drudge, The Matrix computer system.
Matrix - short for Multistate Anti-Terrorism Information Exchange - combines state records and data culled by Seisint to give investigators fast access to information on crime and terrorism suspects. It was launched in 2002.
Because the system includes information on people with no criminal record as well as known criminals, Matrix has drawn objections from liberal and conservative privacy groups. Utah and at least eight other states have pulled out, leaving Florida, Connecticut, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
the scoring system was developed by the company and law enforcement officials by reverse engineering an unnamed "Terrorist Handbook" that reveals how terrorists "penetrate and in live our society."
The scoring incorporated such factors as age, gender, ethnicity, credit history, "investigational data," information about pilot and driver licenses, and connections to "dirty" addresses known to have been used by other suspects.
The gentle reader may recall the October 16, 2003 memo which got leaked to the press. As this contemporary USA Today article quotes Rep. Jim Turner, D-Texas as saying, "[Sec. Rumsfeld is] asking the tough questions we all need to be asking." Sec. Rumsfeld asked a large series of questions, ending with:
What else should we be considering?
Please be prepared to discuss this at our meeting on Saturday or Monday.
Thanks.
From Command Post: "an artillery shell filled with Sarin gas has been discovered in Iraq" and "approximately 2 weeks ago there was another shell that contained mustard gas". Includes links to FNC, CNN, AP, and Reuters.
Addendum----------------------------------------------
From the comments:
Note that the shell isn’t ineffective as an IED per se, it was just in this instance the shell had not been set off correctly. As stated, there seemed to be no markings on the shell that indicated it contained sarin. Being a binary device, the chemical component didn’t work as intended. The chemicals could be removed and used in antoher device, or the shell could be rigged to work, just differently than was done in this case.
The problem is that now the insurgents know they have chemical weapons, and you can bet that they will be checking through their stockpiles. I’m not surprised Army is downplaying this - the potential for harm is huge, even more from the psychological than the physical effects - imagine 2000 dead from a sarin release in a marketplace.
-BF
Posted by BacksightForethought at May 17, 2004 12:31 PM
Where I volunteer to answer phones on Friday nights, another volunteer is opposed to the war in Iraq. While I wouldn't call him treasonous, he definitely sees President Bush's defeat as a silver lining to our eventual loss in Iraq.
Our conversations did not start out as partisan. One of his early points was that Arabs think differently; they are more collectivist, where we are more individualistic. As such, when we humiliated Saddam Hussein, we humiliated all Arabs. A brief review of HEaling Iraq seemed to supported that notion.
Last Friday, he stated definitively that our efforts in Iraq were doomed and that President Bush is incompetent. I countered that the status quo was unnacceptable; Saddam was evil and WMDs are an increasing threat. He let me have that as the last word.
The reason I think of this was this passage from the Monday, May 17, 2004 edition of Nealz Nuze:
When Ted Kennedy and his Democratic sycophants say "Vietnam" Iraqis hear "America will abandon us again." How many Americans have died because of Kennedy's partisanship? How many Iraqis have withheld support and information because they feel they will be left to deal with the consequences when America bails out?
From The U.S. Marines, via Snopes; "he exited his vehicle and began to clear the trench with an M16A2 service rifle and 9 millimeter pistol. His ammunition depleted, Chontosh, with complete disregard for his safety, twice picked up discarded enemy rifles and continued his ferocious attack."
Alan on 05.17.04 @ 09:30 AM CT [link]
(Title phrase stolen from Marginal Revolution).
I really like the concept of Intrade (hat tip: Marginal Revolution). It's a cross between a diverse stock market and a low cost sportsgambling book.
You think President Bush will be reelected? Pay $5.79 now, and get $10 on election day. If you're wrong, you get nothing back. Think he will not be relected? Collect $5.68 now; you will owe nothing on election day if you are right, you'll owe $10 if you are wrong.
Either way, you'll have to pay $.04 to buy or sell the contract. I don't know about the margin requirements. That is; if you make a provisional promise to pay $10, I don't know how much of that $10 you have to keep in your account. I gather that the higher the cost of the contract, the more you have to have in your account.
You can also bet on the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate (Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen Hillary Rodham would be my bets), whether Secretary Rumsfeld will keep his job through June, when Osama will be captured, and whether or not the Dow will rise 25 points tomorrow.
Just like the real stock market, more active traders can buy low and sell high. If you think President Bush is about to take a dip in the polls, you can sell Bush-will-be-reelected contracts now and buy them back later at a lower price. Note that to break even, the price would have to drop $.19 or so; you pay $.08 for commission, and there is currently a $.11 ($5.79-$5.68) spread. Or, sell now for $5.64 ($5.68 - $.04 commission) and buy later for $5.64 ($5.60 + $.04 commission).
Alan on 05.14.04 @ 01:32 AM CT [link]
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